ETF inflows, according to Bybit’s Hao Yang, are primarily driving the current surge in Bitcoin, and the halving is frequently associated with Bitcoin bull cycles.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC $66,473) had a significant increase of nearly 650% from the last halving of Bitcoin in 2020. Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin could potentially reach a price level of $435,000 before the 2028 halving.

Is the price of BTC projected to reach $435,000 by the end of 2028?

According to statistics from TradingView, the price of Bitcoin has seen a significant increase of over 658% since the last halving of Bitcoin in 2020. Presently, the price of Bitcoin stands at approximately $66,000.

The halving of Bitcoin in 2024 will occur over a span of less than three weeks. Replicating previous chart patterns, we project that the current price of Bitcoin, at $66,000, could potentially reach $434,280 per coin by 2028, assuming a similar trajectory as the current cycle.

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However, the post-halving rallies of Bitcoin have shown declining returns over the course of many years. Prior to its first halving in 2012, Bitcoin had a significant surge in value, rising from almost nothing to $12.50, representing a remarkable rise of almost 12,400%. The price of Bitcoin increased by 5,200% to $650 with the half in 2016, and by 1,200% to $8,500 with the halving in 2020.

Bitcoin’s average price rally has seen a decline of 45% each cycle, resulting in the present value of 658%. If the pattern of decreasing returns persists, it is anticipated that Bitcoin will have a significant surge of 360% in the next cycle, leading to an approximate price of $303,600 BTC at the 2028 halving.

Is the effect of Bitcoin halving or ETFs greater?

Hao Yang, the head of financial products at Bybit, primarily attributes the recent increase in Bitcoin’s price to the influx of capital into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), not the upcoming halving. This assertion was made to Cointelegraph.

“Considering [the] halving and price trends from a very rigorous quantitative point of view, there is no evidence supporting a positive correlation between the halving event and BTC price. But history can be interpreted in many different ways. I certainly hope for $435,000 by 2028 but won’t put too much into it.”

According to a study conducted by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas on February 26, it is quite likely that Bitcoin ETFs will surpass gold ETFs in terms of price, perhaps reaching a six-figure BTC price over the next two years.

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Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs are seeing a far faster rate of growth compared to gold ETFs since their first introduction in 2004. According to Sam Wouters, the head of contact at River, Bitcoin is now outpacing the price of gold by a factor of five, as stated in a piece published on March 29th by X.

#Bitcoin is basically just 5x speedrunning gold's trajectory.

The last 10 years of Bitcoin look a bit like a squished version of gold's last 50.

No wonder some people get salty. pic.twitter.com/LztSEtBTfq

— Sam Wouters (@SDWouters) March 29, 2024

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